What the evidence supports—and does not support

Keep the claim narrower than the evidence.

This page preserves negative and insufficient findings while preventing synthetic checks, local-model observations, transport probes, and an unexecuted protocol from being promoted into one another.

Evidence roles separatedNegative results retainedTechnical matrix available
Source artifact
The signed review text and claim matrix remain the audit sources.
RetainedExperiment 1 negative result
RetainedExperiment 2 insufficient-evidence result
Nonescientific Experiment 3 provider result

How to read this review

The review asks whether a public statement stays inside the role of the evidence that supports it. A negative result is not weakened into a vague “interesting pattern,” and an engineering or descriptive observation is not upgraded into a scientific success.

Load-bearing distinctions

Experiment 1 movement versus result

Three complete units moved under relevant evidence, but one nuisance paraphrase also moved a response. The accepted frozen result remains NOT_SUPPORTED.

Experiment 2 science versus engineering

The 888-coordinate campaign was live science and returned INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE for both provider arms. Offline qualification established custody and replay only.

Experiment 2 result versus archaeology

The 66-valid-unit descriptive diagnosis does not replace the accepted confirmatory result.

Synthetic versus real-model evidence

The 6,674,400 oracle-matched evaluations validate software and analysis behavior, not model behavior.

Two local campaigns, two roles

The 1,600-run SR-8R1 campaign governs the current Situation Room. The separate 4,800-run Qwen campaign remains earlier descriptive stress evidence. Neither is Anthropic/Google science, and they are never pooled.

Transport versus science

Six provider calls qualified dated production paths only. No scientific Parallax prompt was sent.

Protocol versus result

The 556,200-call reference plan exists and is sealed. It remains unfunded and unexecuted.

Prohibited implications

  • Parallax measures hidden belief, truth, consciousness, internal reasoning, or correct strategic policy.
  • Claude or Gemini passed Experiment 3.
  • Qwen represents Chinese models generally or supports a geopolitical conclusion.
  • The 7B/14B contrast establishes a causal capacity effect.
  • Surface-cue concordance identifies an internal mechanism.
  • Experiment 2 proved no effect, equivalence, invariance, or general provider failure.
  • N=9270 is a 95% power guarantee for the full joint claim.
  • Publication means the ChinaTalk form was submitted.

Permitted high-strength claims

  • The first live experiment failed its own frozen criterion and was not rescued after inspection.
  • The larger second live campaign resolved all planned coordinates, yet both provider arms returned insufficient evidence under the frozen rule.
  • The mature software/analysis geometry matched all twelve known-ground-truth world dispositions.
  • The local Qwen2.5 campaign exposed non-clean dose behavior, nuisance shifts, and schema-invalid output.
  • Current provider paths passed six bounded non-scientific probes.
  • The full provider study is designed, unexecuted, and funding-dependent.

Open the claim matrix Return to the research story