Earlier surrogate stress evidence · accepted predecessor

The models moved—but not cleanly.

This is the human-readable view of the accepted 4,800-run Qwen2.5 stress campaign. It remains real descriptive evidence, but it does not govern the current Situation Room and is never pooled with the later 1,600-run SR-8R1 campaign.

Earlier campaignDescriptive onlySeparately preserved
Campaign boundary
This page covers the earlier 4,800-run campaign only.
4,800scheduled, attempted, and terminally accounted rows
4,544valid substantive ordinal responses
256schema-invalid enum values, all in 14B strata

What ran

The campaign used Alibaba-origin Qwen2.5 open-weight models in 7B and 14B capacity strata, with deterministic and stochastic regimes. The public aggregate records 4,800 scheduled rows, no duplicate attempts, no replacements, no runtime errors, and no truncations.

Evidence dose

Response profiles were collected across the five ordered evidence doses used by the mature instrument. The aggregate conclusion is descriptive: dose behavior was not uniformly monotone.

Nuisance pairs

There were 60 blinded nuisance comparisons across scenarios and local-model strata. Seventeen had a nonzero response-share shift.

Schema accounting

Schema adherence was 94.6667%. Invalid enum outputs remain invalid; they are not repaired into substantive answers.

Surface-cue concordance

2,519 of 4,800 outputs were concordant with a predeclared shallow-cue heuristic. This is a behavior-level observation, not evidence of internal cue use or mechanism.

What this supports

The local campaign shows that real local models can produce observable dose variation, nuisance shifts, and schema-invalid output under the rebuilt instrument. Those observations are useful stress evidence for the evaluation machinery and for the limits of clean interpretation.

What this does not support

  • It is not Claude or Gemini evidence and does not substitute for the unexecuted provider study.
  • The 7B/14B contrast is not a causal capacity effect.
  • Surface-cue concordance does not identify an internal mechanism.
  • Qwen2.5 behavior does not establish a claim about Chinese models generally.
  • The campaign is not a confirmatory Experiment 3 result.

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